Well Balanced

MP023: Markets, Debt Ceiling, Home Un-Affordability at All Time Highs

All-Time Highs: What They Mean—and What They Don’t

Today, we’re exploring a topic that’s hitting headlines, stirring conversations, and maybe even finding its way into your family group texts: all-time highs.

 

Markets Are Up

Let’s begin with the markets. Despite a turbulent first half of the year—rife with tariff negotiations, interest rate debates, geopolitical tensions, and the occasional curveball—the U.S. stock market has shown remarkable resilience. As of this week, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading at or near record highs.

But before jumping to conclusions: an all-time high in prices alone doesn’t mean the market is “due” for a drop. Think of it like your car’s odometer rolling past 100,000 miles—it doesn’t signal an imminent breakdown. In fact, hitting new highs is a normal part of long-term investing. This year alone, we’ve reached seven new highs. For perspective, there were 57 record-setting closes last year. Other items we are watching: corporate earnings, market valuations, volatility, interest rates.

So far this year, the market is up about 7%. That journey hasn’t been smooth. In April, markets dropped nearly 20% from previous highs—only to rebound 26% from the bottom. April 9th even saw a record-setting one-day performance.

As we like to say: the market takes a bumpy road to the long-term average.

 

Another Kind of All-Time High: National Debt Ceiling

Let’s shift to a different milestone—one that’s perhaps less celebratory. Recently, the U.S. passed the budget reconciliation law known as HR1, or informally, “one big beautiful bill.” Along with it came a $5 trillion increase to the national debt ceiling, from $36 trillion to $41 trillion.

That’s a staggering number. For context: in 1996, the entire debt ceiling was $5 trillion.

The debt ceiling operates like Uncle Sam’s credit limit—it doesn’t authorize new spending, but allows the government to meet its existing obligations like Social Security, defense, and interest payments. Since 1960, it’s been raised nearly 80 times to keep pace with our economy and obligations.

Raising the ceiling helps avoid default, which is crucial. But rising debt levels raise questions about sustainability. It’s akin to continually raising your credit limit—the spending may continue, but so do the minimum payments. Eventually, the lender starts to worry.

That’s why markets tend to focus more on debt sustainability than the absolute number. As long as our economy grows and trust in our institutions remains strong, the system is expected to hold.

 

The All-Time High That Hits Home: Gap Between Home Prices and Housing Affordability

Finally, let’s talk about an all-time high that’s hitting close to home—literally.

The gap between home prices and affordability is near historic highs, posing a real challenge for new prospective homebuyers. While home values have climbed steadily—accelerating during the low-rate pandemic years—today’s higher mortgage rates have sharply increased the cost of borrowing.

Mortgage rates now hover between 6.5% and 7%, more than double what they were just five years ago. That means even if a home’s price hasn’t changed, the monthly payment on a new mortgage has—by a lot.

Historically, affordability crunches have created pressure for change, whether through falling rates, policy shifts, or increased housing supply. But none of those solutions happen overnight.

At Vector, we believe the financial landscape is always a blend of opportunity and complexity. That’s why staying informed, grounded, and committed to a financial plan is essential—especially during times of record highs.

Thanks for tuning in to Well Balanced. If you have questions or want to explore how these dynamics might impact your strategy, we’re here to help.

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vectorwealth.com/regulatory

All content discussed in our podcasts, videos, or related blog articles are for informational purposes and should not be construed as individualized financial advice.

Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Vector Wealth Management, our staff, and guests. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources, however, we make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and ideas should be discussed directly and in detail with your financial advisor prior to implementation of a strategy or investment. This podcast and related content are not intended to render personalized investment advice, nor should it be viewed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities or strategies discussed.

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FYR026: Treat Yourself: Why Intentional Spending Matters in Retirement with Chris Wagner

What Would You Do With $300?

In the latest episode of Well Balanced, Vector advisor Chris Wagner joins Ezra Firkins to discuss a simple but revealing question: Can a $300 purchase improve your life? From air fryers to flight upgrades, Chris and Ezra explore how small, intentional spending can bring real value—especially for clients who’ve spent a lifetime saving. The conversation invites listeners to reflect on their own comfort, habits, and hesitation around spending, even when their financial plans say, “Yes, you can.”

But this isn’t just about gadgets or upgrades. The episode dives into deeper territory—how savers can transition into purposeful spenders, how to build confidence through small financial experiments, and how tools like Vector’s Sojourn planning platform can model those choices. They also explore themes of legacy, joy, and the emotional work of allowing yourself to enjoy the wealth you’ve built.

Takeaways:

💸 Small purchases can spark big joy — Even $300 spent wisely can make life noticeably better.

🧠 Savers need a mindset shift — Transitioning from saving to spending in retirement is emotional, not just financial.

🧪 Start small, then evaluate — Try one thing (like a flight upgrade or a home project), and see how it feels.

🧰 Modeling builds confidence — Tools like Sojourn can show you exactly how a purchase fits into your plan.

• 🎁 Spending can be legacy too — Helping kids, supporting causes, or enjoying travel—these are meaningful uses of your wealth.

Chapters

00:00 – Welcome & The $300 Idea  

03:31 – Why Savers Struggle to Spend  

07:02 – From Plans to Possibilities  

10:34 – Start Small, Build Confidence  

14:05 – Legacy, Comfort & Experience  

17:36 – Model Financial Choices

21:08 – Confidence in Action & Wrap-Up

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vectorwealth.com/start

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vectorwealth.com/regulatory

All content discussed in our podcasts, videos, or related blog articles are for informational purposes and should not be construed as individualized financial advice.

Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Vector Wealth Management, our staff, and guests. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources, however, we make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and ideas should be discussed directly and in detail with your financial advisor prior to implementation of a strategy or investment. This podcast and related content are not intended to render personalized investment advice, nor should it be viewed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities or strategies discussed.

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FYR25: Target Date Funds in Retirement Accounts with Mike Nesheim

In this edition of The Well Balanced Podcast, Ezra Firkins sits down with Senior Wealth Advisor Mike Nesheim to unpack a scenario that pre-retirees face: I’ve got a target date fund in my 401K and I plan to retire in the next few years.

 

What next?

Mike and Ezra explore how target date funds work, why they’re often a great accumulation tool, and when it might make sense to move beyond them.

 

Here are 7 key takeaways about target date funds:

1. Target Date Funds Offer Built-in Diversification

Target date funds are “funds of funds” — they include a mix of domestic and international stocks, bonds, and cash. This provides a simple, cost-effective way to achieve diversification within a single investment, especially within retirement plans like 401(k)s.

 

2. They Follow a Glide Path Strategy

These funds automatically adjust their asset allocation over time, reducing equity exposure and increasing fixed income and cash as the target retirement year approaches. For example, a 2030 fund may move from 90% equities decades out to 60/40 near retirement.

 

3. They’re Designed for the Average Investor, Not the Individual

Target date funds use a “one-size-fits-all” model. While they can be a good fit during accumulation years, they don’t account for individual needs like healthcare costs, specific withdrawal timelines, or legacy planning.

 

4. Withdrawal Mechanics Can Be Inefficient in Retirement

When you take distributions from a target date fund, you’re selling both stocks and bonds in proportion to the fund’s allocation. This can be suboptimal during market downturns, as it may force selling equities at depressed values.

 

5. They Aren’t Built for Strategic Tax Planning

Target date funds don’t allow for intentional asset location (e.g., placing stocks in Roth IRAs for growth, or bonds in taxable accounts for stability). Personalized portfolios can be more tax-efficient.

 

6. They May Not Reflect Your Risk Tolerance or Legacy Goals

For investors with assets earmarked for heirs or charitable giving, target date funds may reduce equity exposure too aggressively. Customized plans can maintain higher stock allocations for long-term growth when appropriate.

 

7. Flexibility During Market Shifts

Target date funds don’t allow you to selectively draw from low-volatility assets in a downturn. In contrast, a bucket strategy — like the one used at Vector Wealth Management — offers withdrawal flexibility that helps clients stay invested with confidence.

 

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vectorwealth.com/start

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vectorwealth.com/regulatory

All content discussed in our podcasts, videos, or related blog articles are for informational purposes and should not be construed as individualized financial advice.

Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Vector Wealth Management, our staff, and guests. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources, however, we make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and ideas should be discussed directly and in detail with your financial advisor prior to implementation of a strategy or investment. This podcast and related content are not intended to render personalized investment advice, nor should it be viewed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities or strategies discussed.

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FYR024: Weddings and Financial Planning with Joe Grochowski

In this episode of Vector's Well Balanced podcast, senior wealth advisor Joe Grochowski discusses the financial planning aspects of weddings, particularly focusing on how parents can support their children while managing their own retirement plans. We explore the rising costs of weddings, the importance of budgeting, and the emotional significance of these events.

7 Key Takeaways:

• The average cost of a wedding is trending upwards. $30K+ on average.
• Parents often want to help make their child's wedding special.
• Planning for the costs of a wedding should ideally start in advance.
• Begin assessing available financial resources for wedding expenses.
• Avoid tapping into retirement funds or high interest debt for wedding costs.
• Setting a realistic budget that includes some overages.
• Planning for milestone events can enhance the joy of the occasion.

Chapters:

1. 00:00 Introductions and Setup
2. 00:42 Scenario: Kids Get Married. Mom & Dad Spend.
3. 01:04 Planning for Wedding Expenses
4. 03:18 Bucket Base Approach to Planning
5. 04:58 Avoid High Interest Loans
6. 06:39 Setting Aside the Funds
7. 09:21 Start Early - Final Thoughts

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vectorwealth.com/start - vectorwealth.com/regulatory All content discussed in our podcasts, videos, or related blog articles are for informational purposes and should not be construed as individualized financial advice. Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Vector Wealth Management, our staff, and guests. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources, however, we make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and ideas should be discussed directly and in detail with your financial advisor prior to implementation of a strategy or investment. This podcast and related content are not intended to render personalized investment advice, nor should it be viewed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities or strategies discussed.

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FYR023: The 10X Retirement Savings Rule with Charlie Gruys

In this episode of Vector’s Well Balanced Podcast, our communications director Ezra and wealth manager Charlie Gruys explore retirement savings goals through practical examples, benchmarks, and financial planning insights.

They discuss how income multiples (example: 6x annual income = investable savings at 55 years) can help guide retirement preparedness. The conversation presents two household scenarios: 10 years from retirement, earning $250,000 annually but starting with different asset bases ($500K vs. $1M).

These examples illustrate the impact of savings contributions and hypothetical return rates in achieving a $2.5 million retirement goal by age 65. They talk about how rules-of-thumb such as “10x income at retirement” and “15% savings rate” are useful, effective planning must be tailored to the individual’s unique circumstances, including investment allocation, inflation assumptions, taxes, retirement age, and desired legacy.

7 Key Takeaways

1. Rules of Thumb Provide a Starting Point. Common benchmarks—like saving 3–4x income by age 45, 6x by 55, and 10x by retirement—are helpful guidelines, but not definitive prescriptions.

2. A 15% Savings Rate Is a Solid Target. Contributing approximately 15% of income toward retirement (including employer matches) is a widely accepted and achievable goal for many.

3. Investment Returns Significantly Impact Savings Needs. Assumed returns of 4%, 8%, or 12% greatly influence monthly savings requirements. Higher returns reduce the need for large monthly contributions, but are harder to sustain consistently.

4. Asset Location and Tax Considerations Matter. Saving in tax-advantaged accounts (e.g., 401(k)s, IRAs) and ensuring assets are invested appropriately—not merely saved in low-yield accounts—is essential for long-term growth.

5. Personal Factors Affect Retirement Needs. Variables such as lifestyle, health, debts, retirement age, and longevity expectations all play critical roles in determining appropriate savings goals.

6. Inflation Assumptions Should Be Tailored. While 3% is a standard inflation assumption, personalized inflation rates for categories like travel or healthcare may offer better forecasting accuracy.

7. Legacy Goals and Risk Tolerance Influence Planning. Whether a retiree wishes to leave a financial legacy or spend down their assets affects savings targets and investment strategy, especially as market volatility becomes harder to stomach near or in retirement.

- vectorwealth.com/start

- vectorwealth.com/regulatory

All content discussed in our podcasts, videos, or related blog articles are for informational purposes and should not be construed as individualized financial advice. Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Vector Wealth Management, our staff, and guests. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources, however, we make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and ideas should be discussed directly and in detail with your financial advisor prior to implementation of a strategy or investment. This podcast and related content are not intended to render personalized investment advice, nor should it be viewed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities or strategies discussed.

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WB005: Art, Math, and Financial Planning with Emily Victory

In our latest episode, Vector’s Sharon Calhoun sits down with Emily Victory, a pattern-driven artist whose work lives at the intersection of art and mathematics. Emily shares her journey, revealing how structure and expression come together through a creative process.

Takeaways

• Taking the first steps in any creative pursuit is often the hardest.
• Embrace the journey of exploration.
• Art can make math more accessible.
• Every piece of art, like every financial plan, is unique.
• Curiosity drives creativity.
• Maintain a beginner’s mindset.

Chapters

00:00 Exploring Patterns in Art

07:50 The Creative Process: From Concept to Completion

16:39 The Role of Math in Art and Financial Planning

25:17 Authenticity and Individuality

28:53 Connect with Emily

30:37 Final Thoughts

32:04 Regulatory

 

About Emily

Emily has degrees in mathematics and fine arts and loves combining the two. Her work has been featured on HGTV, PBS, and Twin Cities Public Television. She has spoken at The Walker Art Center, University of Minnesota, St. Cloud State University, Luther College, and the Science Museum of Minnesota. A MN Original Artist Day Jobs episode featuring Emily won a Midwest Emmy and was included in PBS’s National Video Contest, where it won Most Viewed Video. Visit emvictorystudio.com.

 

About Vector

Vector Wealth Management is passionate about helping clients succeed by providing a financial planning framework to make confident, smart decisions and, ultimately, planning for tomorrow while getting today right!

 

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All content discussed in our podcasts, videos, or related blog articles are for informational purposes and should not be construed as individualized financial advice.

Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Vector Wealth Management, our staff, and guests. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources, however, we make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and ideas should be discussed directly and in detail with your financial advisor prior to implementation of a strategy or investment. This podcast and related content are not intended to render personalized investment advice, nor should it be viewed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities or strategies discussed.

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vectorwealth.com/regulatory

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MP022: Moody’s Downgrade of U.S. Credit with Jason Ranallo

A shift occurred in the world of government bonds—one that, if the trend continues, could have implications for interest rates, mortgage affordability, and the broader economy. In our latest podcast episode, Vector’s Jason Ranallo breaks down what rating agency Moody’s downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt means—and if it matters for your financial future.

Summary

Moody’s has lowered the U.S. government’s credit rating from AAA to Aa1, citing persistent fiscal deficits and rising interest costs. While this may sound concerning, we believe that Treasuries can have a place in a diversified portfolio, and the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still strong.

We also look at Treasury yields–which have remained in fair-value range, mortgage rates, U.S. debt levels, and GDP.

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Key Takeaways

• Moody’s Downgrade: The U.S. lost its last AAA rating from Moody’s, following similar moves by S&P and Fitch.
• Historical Context: Moody’s AAA rating had stood since 1917, when the U.S. issued Liberty Bonds to fund World War I.
• Debt Trajectory: Federal debt could rise to 134% of GDP within a decade, analysts suggest, up from 40% two decades ago.
• Market Response: Despite the downgrade, 10-year Treasury yields remain steady around 4.45%.
• Impact on Mortgages: With rates near 6.9%, housing affordability is at a multi-decade low—especially for first-time buyers.
• Investment Strategy: Treasuries remain valuable for their liquidity and relative stability, even amid changing credit ratings.

At Vector, our team remains focused on helping you navigate changes in your financial life with clarity, not reaction. This downgrade is important, but it doesn’t change our confidence in your investment policy.

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vectorwealth.com/regulatory

All content discussed in our podcasts, videos, or related blog articles are for informational purposes and should not be construed as individualized financial advice.

Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Vector Wealth Management, our staff, and guests. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources, however, we make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and ideas should be discussed directly and in detail with your financial advisor prior to implementation of a strategy or investment. This podcast and related content are not intended to render personalized investment advice, nor should it be viewed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities or strategies discussed.

Please note that neither Vector Wealth Management nor any of its agents give legal or tax advice. The firm is not engaged in the practice of law or accounting. Charts, graphs, and returns do not represent the performance of Vector Wealth Management or any of its advisory clients. Returns presented do not reflect the impact that advisory fees and other expenses would on the results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment, asset category, or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a client’s portfolio.

MP021: The Latest GDP Report, Imports, and Context with Jason Ranallo

Every quarter, a new set of GDP reports make headlines. In our latest podcast we dig into Gross Domestic Product, market reaction, and dig into the details behind the numbers.  

Here’s the backdrop: The first estimate of Q1 GDP report showed the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of the year—which rattled markets Wednesday morning. That said, if you checked markets after lunch the same day, you might have missed the whole reaction.  

As with most things, there is a nuanced story beneath the headline. 

Imports. Compared to the prior quarter, imports increased by over 9% (~40% annualized), which in economic accounting reduces GDP. Here’s the takeaway: imports bringing down GDP is likely a short-term effect. We believe that businesses and consumers were buying goods ahead of expected tariffs, thereby increasing imports in Q1. This is front-running—essentially stockpiling today to avoid future costs tomorrow. We would expect imports to ease or average out in future quarters. 

At Vector, we believe that emotional investing based on headlines is usually unhelpful. Contractions and advancements are a normal part of the economic cycle. But predicting exactly when they’ll come, how long they’ll last, or what will cause them is nearly impossible. That’s why we focus on planning for uncertainty, rather than trying to avoid it altogether. 

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vectorwealth.com/regulatory

All content discussed in our podcasts, videos, or related blog articles are for informational purposes and should not be construed as individualized financial advice.

Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Vector Wealth Management, our staff, and guests. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources, however, we make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and ideas should be discussed directly and in detail with your financial advisor prior to implementation of a strategy or investment. This podcast and related content are not intended to render personalized investment advice, nor should it be viewed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities or strategies discussed.

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