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Well Balanced | Financial Planning, Bucket-Based Investing, Market Perspective, Wealth Management. A passionate and entertaining look at money and investing in and for retirement. For those that enjoy podcasts like Smart Money, On Investing, and BiggerPockets, Well Balanced is worth adding to your feed. Disclosures about our firm and this podcast. Vector Wealth Management is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. A copy of Vector’s current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC discusses among other things, Vector’s business practices, services, and fees, and is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. All content in this podcast is for information purposes. Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Vector Wealth Management, our staff, and guests. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources, however, we make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and ideas should be discussed directly and in detail with your financial advisor prior to implementation. This podcast and related content are not intended to render personalized investment advice, nor should it be viewed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities or strategies discussed. Please note that neither Vector Wealth Management nor any of its agents give legal or tax advice. The firm is not engaged in the practice of law or accounting. Charts, graphs, and returns do not represent the performance of Vector Wealth Management or any of its advisory clients. Returns do not reflect the impact that advisory fees and other expenses would on the results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a client’s portfolio. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Visit vectorwealth.com/regulatory for the firms form CRS and ADV.
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Friday Mar 28, 2025
Friday Mar 28, 2025
When people feel the worst about the economy, that’s often when markets perform their best. Strange, right? But this is one of the fascinating dynamics we see when we dig into consumer sentiment—a gauge of how people feel about the economy.
The March preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index slumped 7 points to a lower-than-expected reading of 57.9. This was the third consecutive decline, bringing sentiment to its lowest level since 2022. The sharp deterioration is historically consistent with a slowdown in economic growth, as consumers typically pull back on spending.
Historically, when consumer sentiment is at its lowest, the stock market tends to rally—often strongly—over the next 12 months. In fact, the average return for the stock market following sentiment troughs is just over 24%, compared to just 3.5% after sentiment peaks.
Why this disconnect?
While current concerns about inflation, layoffs, and geo-politics are valid, financial markets are forward-looking. Markets are not only reacting to today’s emotions—they’re also trying to price in tomorrow’s outcomes. Periods of extreme pessimism can signal opportunity for long-term investors.
In this video podcast, we explore how sentiment acts as a contrarian indicator and how investors can respond. Rather than predicting the bottom, we emphasize having a plan, a diversified investment approach, and the ability to take action.
Take aways:
• Consumer sentiment can be a contrarian indicator
• Markets are forward-looking.
• Intra-year market declines have averaged -14% (yet finished positive a favorable 75% of the time)
Worth noting past performance is no guarantee of future results. We zoom out for context and understanding.
If this market update has got you thinking about someone you care about or your own financial plans—we’d love to hear from you. You can reach out to us directly or through our website to schedule a conversation.
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Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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For more, visit: Vectorwealth.com/regulatory
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